The Iran war’s devastating impact on global energy markets is beginning to ripple into food security, with fertilizer supplies among the commodities now threatened by the conflict’s disruption to Gulf trade routes, according to Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. Speaking in Canberra, the IEA chief warned that the crisis — already equivalent in scale to the 1970s twin oil shocks and the Ukraine gas emergency — was becoming an agricultural and humanitarian threat as well. He called for urgent global action to address both the immediate energy emergency and its widening consequences.
The conflict began February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran and escalated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The closure has removed approximately 20 percent of global oil supply from international markets, while damage to Gulf energy infrastructure has pushed daily oil losses to 11 million barrels. Gas losses of 140 billion cubic metres have also exceeded the 75 billion cubic metres lost during the Ukraine war.
Beyond oil and gas, Birol highlighted disruptions to supplies of petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium — commodities essential to global agriculture and industrial production. Fertilizer shortages, in particular, could have serious consequences for food production cycles and global food prices if the crisis persists. Birol described these secondary disruptions as vital arteries of the global economy that were being simultaneously squeezed.
The IEA released 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, the largest emergency action in its history, and called for demand-reducing policies including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced commercial flights. Birol confirmed discussions about further reserve releases were underway with governments across Europe, Asia, and North America. He stressed that these measures would reduce economic pain but could not replace lost production.
Iran threatened retaliation against US and allied energy and desalination infrastructure following Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the strait. At least 40 Gulf energy assets have been severely damaged, making even a post-conflict supply recovery long and difficult. Birol concluded that without reopening the Hormuz strait and addressing the full spectrum of supply disruptions, the crisis threatened consequences far beyond energy markets.