US oil prices are now 23% above pre-war levels as the Iran conflict extends into its third week, with analysts warning that further increases are likely on Monday. Petroleum expert Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while acknowledging that $4 gasoline remains possible. The sustained military campaign has created a lasting and significant shift in the US energy price landscape.
When the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28, gasoline was selling for under $3 per gallon nationally. Three weeks later, the national average stands at $3.70, a 23% jump driven entirely by the supply disruptions caused by the ongoing military operations. The sustained nature of the price increase has made it one of the most significant energy cost escalations American consumers have experienced in years.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil processing and export facility, sent fresh tremors through global oil markets. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply flows, has removed a significant volume of petroleum from the world market. Brent crude traded between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a Sunday spike to $100.
California is bearing the heaviest consumer price burden in the US, with state averages above $5 per gallon and Los Angeles stations in some areas exceeding $8. Diesel costs for commercial transport sectors could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. The leaders of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all briefed White House officials on the worsening supply situation, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods expressing specific concern about the role of speculative traders in magnifying price increases.
Wall Street started the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1% following a brief retreat in oil prices. Major oil company stocks have surged to record highs since the conflict began, reflecting the financial benefits of elevated oil prices for energy sector investors. For American consumers, however, the 23% price increase since the war began represents a real and growing financial burden with no clear end in sight.